6 May 2014

NHL Awards 2013/14 - meet the contenders


As the saying goes: "What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas until yet another lockout delays the end of the season enough to make it a logistical and public relations nightmare, meaning it goes away from Vegas for a year before it comes back and maybe then stays in Vegas."

2013 saw the Balding Captain and Power Forward Traded By Alberta Team For Bag of Pucks Trophy awarded for the first time in several years

Here is the usual quick rundown of the main awards (those that are voted on) and those in contention:

Hart Memorial Trophy

Voted on by: Members of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association
Supposed to be awarded to: The player adjudged most valuable to his team
In practice, normally awarded to: LeBron James, due to often liberal interpretation of guidance issued by the PHWA to its attentive voters

Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Finally receiving some well-deserved individual recognition as something more than just an average player with points totals inflated due to being a regular linemate of Chris Kunitz.

Ryan Getzlaf (Anaheim Ducks)
Sometimes compared to Mark Messier, given his combination of scoring ability and physical play, his size and his Western Canadian origins, although with the parity in today's NHL, his chances of matching #11's number of Cup wins are heavily receding.

Claude Giroux (Philadelphia Flyers)
After opening the season without a goal in 15 games, led the Flyers' recovery the rest of the way by hitting the back of the net 28 times, joining the back of Braden Holtby's head as something hit 28 times to turnaround the Flyers' season.

Ted Lindsay Award

Voted on by: Members of the National Hockey League Players' Association
Supposed to be awarded to: The most outstanding player in the NHL
In practice, normally awarded to: The player voted for by everybody in the NHLPA except Roman Hamrlík

Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
His 17-point margin of victory over Getzlaf in the scoring race was the largest since the 1998/99 season, when Jaromír Jágr beat Teemu Selänne by 20 points, predictive analysis therefore suggesting that the 2028/29 season will see a Penguin win the scoring race over a Duck by a large margin again and Jágr outscoring Selänne by 60 points.

Ryan Getzlaf (Anaheim Ducks)
If not for Rangers superstars, Pavel Brendl and Hugh Jessiman, would surely be recognised as both the most successful graduate of the Calgary Hitmen and the best power forward to come out of the stacked 2003 entry draft.

Claude Giroux (Philadelphia Flyers)
After a unsuccessful 2012/13 campaign, suffered an off-season golfing injury, believed to be the most apt Flyers-related accident since Kate Smith was fatally crushed by a goon dropped from the Spectrum rafters by a terrible goaltender.

James Norris Memorial Trophy

Voted on by: Members of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association   
Supposed to be awarded to: The defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position
In practice, normally awarded to: Nicklas Lidström

Zdeno Chára (Boston Bruins)
His booming slapshot has been officially recorded at 108.8 mph, putting it in a similar speed bracket as a David Ortiz home run ball and a character assassination written by a member of the local press following the trade of a scoring forward by the Bruins.

Duncan Keith (Chicago Blackhawks)
The Manitoban All-Star calibre player with missing front teeth and a cavalier attitude to concussions is nicknamed "Clarkey" by his Blackhawks teammates for reasons that nobody has yet divulged.

Shea Weber (Nashville Predators)
After a 12-month period without addition, has a chance of joining the select list of players signed to a contract by Paul Holmgren winning something while not playing for the Los Angeles Kings.

Vezina Trophy

Voted on by: General Managers of all NHL clubs
Supposed to be awarded to: The goaltender who is adjudged to be the best at this position
In practice, normally awarded to: The Russian goaltender who is adjudged to be the best at owning an unsustainable high save percentage on an overachieving team

Ben Bishop (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Already arguably the second best goaltender in Lightning history behind Cup-winner Nikolai Khabibulin, this season's exploits having put him ahead of a moth-eaten curtain, Empty Net and John Grahame.

Tuukka Rask (Boston Bruins)
Although continuing to rack up impressive personal statistics, some believe he still carries the stigma of backstopping Bruins teams that have both blown a 3-0 playoff series lead and conceded two late goals within 17 seconds to lose a Stanley Cup Final elimination game, "achievements" that the goalie tandem of Andrew Raycroft and Justin Pogge have never suffered, according to the Maple Leafs' analytics department.

Semyon Varlamov (Colorado Avalanche)
Controversially acquired at the cost of a potentially high first round draft pick by the then-lowly Avalanche, so faces the pressure of having to win multiple Vezinas to match the probable Hall of Fame-level contributions the Capitals will receive over Filip Forsberg's career.

Host George Stroumboulopoulos indicates how many NHL games
in aggregate the show's celebrity guests have ever attended

Calder Memorial Trophy

Voted on by: Members of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association 
Supposed to be awarded to: The player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League
In practice, normally awarded to: The player selected as the highest point-scoring forward in what might be his third year of competition in the National Hockey League after what might be no or several years of competition in another professional league

Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Undrafted, diminutive scoring forward for the Lightning seemingly not penalised by voters for his intention to petulantly force a trade in 15 years' time to the team closest to his off-season home, the Seattle Coyotes.

Nathan McKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)
Achieved two extremely rare feats that even Wayne Gretzky couldn't manage in his career, by having a 13-game scoring streak as an 18-year-old and by being permitted to take a shootout attempt in a game involving Patrick Roy.

Ondřej Palát (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Led all rookies in scoring in 2014 and plus-minus over the season, as well as blocking 64 shots, thus preventing the most pucks reaching the goal by any NHLer with "Ondřej Pa" in his name.

Frank J. Selke Trophy

Voted on by: Members of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association 
Supposed to be awarded to: The forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game
In practice, normally awarded to: The forward who is considered by PHWA members to be the best defensively, based on a balanced analysis of zone-starts, Corsi %, quality of competition, usage and shot prevention while shorthanded and penalty differential, though an insignificant minority might just look at reputation and plus-minus.

Patrice Bergeron (Boston Bruins)
Famously exhibited his toughness in last year's Stanley Cup Final by playing through a punctured lung, separated shoulder and broken nose, injuries suffered when a Chicago player collided with Brad Marchand's left knee.

Anže Kopitar (Los Angeles Kings)
Despite being ranked the top European skater, was to be found in Sweden as the 2005 Entry Draft took place, as coincidentally was a bag containing 45 lottery balls without "Pittsburgh Penguins" written on them.

Jonathan Toews (Chicago Blackhawks)
Has much in common with Bergeron, being a member of the Triple Gold Club, a previous Selke winner, fluent in English and French and having a name that sounds nothing like a word spelled T.O.E.W.S.

Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy

Voted on by: Members of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association 
Supposed to be awarded to: The player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey
In practice, normally awarded to: The player who missed the most games through injury the season before

Jaromír Jágr (New Jersey Devils)
Has remarkably sustained an NHL career longer than each of the three 20-year-old players for whom he was traded by Pittsburgh on July 11 2001, a feat that probably stopped deserving being called remarkable around October 11 2001.

Manny Malhotra (Carolina Hurricanes)
Has made a successful return to the NHL after being let go by the Vancouver Canucks in 2011, a decision described by then-GM Mike Gillis as "the hardest thing I have done in this job", which led to Gillis resolving to avoid making any hard decisions relating to his roster for as long as possible from that point on.

Dominic Moore (New York Rangers)
As his Wikipedia bio states, has at times in his career had to cope with the unenviable handicap of playing with Jason Blake on a "scoring" line and with Ryan Hollweg on a line of any description.

Messrs Linden and Lecavalier proudly display their humanitarian awards for all their tireless work for organisations dealing with disadvantaged goaltending situations 

Lady Byng Memorial Trophy

Voted on by: Members of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association 
Supposed to be awarded to: The player adjudged to have exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability
In practice, normally awarded to: The player adjudged to have had the fewest penalty minutes when the voters quickly skim down the list of top 20 scorers five minutes before the deadline to send in their ballot

Patrick Marleau (San Jose Sharks)
Evidence of a high level of gentlemanly conduct and self-control is shown by his tally of only 18 penalty minutes all year and being on the record as having listened to Jeremy Roenick for in excess of 10 minutes in one go.

Ryan O'Reilly (Colorado Avalanche)
Notably only called for one penalty in 80 games played, for inadvertently playing with a broken stick, an infraction considered by his coach to be too vanilla to spoil such a record.

Martin St. Louis (New York Rangers)
Achieves the unique distinction of being a finalist for this award having once signed a contract with the genuine intention of playing for a team run by Jay Feaster.

Jack Adams Award

Voted on by: Members of the NHL Broadcasters' Association 
Supposed to be awarded to: The coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team's success
In practice, normally awarded to: The coach adjudged to have coached either the most injured team or the team with the best PDO/shootout-fuelled record.

Mike Babcock (Detroit Red Wings)
At one point during the filming of HBO's '24/7' series, kicked the camera crew out of his locker room between periods of one game, a controversial move given the camera crew formed the injury-hit Red Wings' second line at the time.

Jon Cooper (Tampa Bay Lightning)
A dual citizen of the United States and Canada, meaning he alternates between having no idea there is a hockey team near where he lives and wanting it to be contracted or moved to Quebec.

Patrick Roy (Colorado Avalanche)
Successful start to his professional coaching career would normally bode well for a long stay behind the bench, but his combustible personality suggests that a dramatic falling out with the vice president of hockey operations for the Avalanche at some point is almost inevitable.

General Manager of the Year Award

In a departure from previous practice, in recognition of the popularity of vague schedules and the ultimate measure of success being winning two playoff rounds, the finalists will apparently be announced "later this month on a date to be determined" and will be based on voting conducted following the second round of the playoffs.  So Doug Wilson's chances have rather swiftly evaporated.

POST-ANNOUNCEMENT EDIT:

Voted on by: General Managers of all NHL clubs and a panel of NHL executives, print and broadcast media 
Supposed to be awarded to: The top National Hockey League General Manager
In practice, normally awarded to: The National Hockey League General Manager Most Likely To Be Fired Within A Couple Of Years As A Direct Consequence Of Short-Term Moves That Led To Being A Finalist For The Award

Marc Bergevin (Montreal Canadiens)
Leading candidate to extend to two the streak of General Manager of the Year Award winners who willingly acquired Douglas Murray in the previous year, meaning the Best GM:Gritty Hitty Swedish Defenseman:Conference Finalists relationship still maintains a correlation coefficient of 1.0000, stat nerds.

Dean Lombardi (Los Angeles Kings)
Beneficiary of the maxim that acquiring a former 40-goal scorer from the Columbus Blue Jackets is a guarantee of a large quantity of playoff goals roughly two out of every three times.

Bob Murray (Anaheim Ducks)
Despite being a successor to Brian Burke in his role, appears to have the Ducks somewhat behind schedule in becoming entirely dysfunctional and based in Canada.

-----

Awards post archive (a.k.a. look at all the recycled material):

18 April 2014

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - end of season wrap

This is my final update for the 2013/14 regular season on which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

[More stuff is in a pipeline of currently indeterminate length, e.g. game-by-game breakdowns for each team, summary analysis of six years' worth of data. Can't promise when.)

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

[Click to enlarge any image]

Commercial break...
  • CHIP rankings are also fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator
  • My weekly updates on Twitter (@LW3H) are clearly now on hiatus, but you will find a large volume of other highly acclaimed content spewing out there regardless (lie)
  • Some of the extra stuff might also be used by those nice people at Hockey Prospectus
Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below (playoff teams highlighted in yellow) shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season)

CHIP figures in graphical form (paler bars represent the three "retired" players on LTIR noted below):


As a slight Vollman-suggested modification, the same figures but only allowing for cap hit above league minimum salary (so Cap Hit Above Replacement of Injured Players?):



The same for AMIP (teams in the same order as the CHIP chart for ease of comparison):


The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 71-82 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • While there are several persuasive arguments as to why the figures are somewhat overstated in value terms for both the Red Wings (Weiss contract, marginal contributions when healthy of Cleary and Samuelsson) and Penguins (known absence of Vokoun, 150+ games missed by D'Agostini, Kobasew, Glass, Ebbett, Megna, Conner, Vitale, Gibbons, Pyatt), still a clear separation from the pack.
  • As expected, the Red Wings eventually sailed past the high CHIP watermark over all seasons since 2008/09 of $16.9m belonging to the 2011/12 Canadiens.
  • Common with every year, plenty of injured teams made the playoffs, a good few healthy teams did not.
  • Thanks to the Senators starting to get injured in a late season attempt to recreate the magic of a year ago, the Flyers actually fairly clearly became the healthiest team over the season once you discount the effect of "Chris" "Pronger" who is definitely "not" a "scout" now, OK?
  • Not shown in the key, but the invisible column extending beyond the $50m mark next to Toronto is, of course, the intangible Bolland bar.
Winners of positional crowns:
Goaltenders: Predators [Pekka Rinne missing 51 games but still a creditable second in team scoring]
Defensemen: Ducks [let's hope Sheldon Souray again stayed the hell away from the Oilers' prospects]
Forwards: Red Wings [played 20-games with only Gustav Nyquist and two Gatorade bottles up front]

And the paper hats:
Goaltenders: Bruins/Sharks [sharing this award means it actually deserves to go to Jaromir Jagr]
Defensemen: Maple Leafs [good health the foundation for a famously stifling defensive game all year]
Forwards: Kings [second year in a row - dare them to re-sign Marian Gaborik and go for a third]

The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:



Players under contract who missed all 82 games:
Souray (Anaheim)
Savard (Boston) [third full season out]
Pitkanen (Carolina)
Pronger (Philadelphia) [second full season out]
Vokoun (Pittsburgh)
Ohlund (Tampa Bay) [third full season out]
Lee (Tampa Bay)

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.


30% of all injuries were basically not disclosed, which is a notch higher than the last couple of years. However, things should improve should all coaches follow Joel Quenneville's admirable playoff efforts to identify and disclose groin injuries from the bench.

The crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) ended up at 0.80 per game (compared to 0.80 last year, 0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


The bottom four teams here fairly typical based on recent years. I note the Oilers did actually achieve 100% disclosure again based on their website injury report, but there are two types of websites and I care much more about TSN's.

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • Click HERE if you want a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

23 March 2014

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 70-game report

This is my latest update for the 2013/14 regular season on which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to its 70th game. (This follows on from my 60-game update.)

[Click to enlarge any image]

Commercial break...
  • For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis
  • I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H)
  • I will be hopefully also contributing on an irregular basis to Hockey Prospectus
Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 70 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season)

CHIP figures in graphical form (paler bars represent the three "retired" players on LTIR noted below):


The same for AMIP (teams in the same order as the CHIP chart for ease of comparison):


The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 61-70 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • Bored with missing only four players per game over the previous 10-game stretch, the Red Wings really ramped things up by basically doubling that over the next 10, with Zetterberg and Datsyuk missing throughout, plus (perhaps of marginally less importance) the warm bodies inhabiting the Cleary and Samuelsson jerseys these days.
  • The high CHIP watermark over the last five years of the 2011/12 Canadiens ($16.9m) is very possibly under threat.
  • Despite the continuing fly-esque player dropping instances in Michigan and a couple of other places, there were seven teams with single-digit MGL figures in the 10-game period (if you ignore Pronger from the Flyers' figures and Ohlund/Lee from the Lightning's), which again suggests the Olympic break and compressed schedule hasn't demolished the player population quite as much as you might be led to believe.
  • Comparing the CHIP and AMIP figures for the Red Wings and Penguins gives a nice illustration that defensemen tend to play more minutes than forwards, which is obviously a ground-breaking discovery.
The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:



Yeah, Gaborik doesn't play for Columbus (still unconvinced he ever did), but the figures above represent games missed for the team the player was with at the time.  So, the smaller chunks for Fasth and Robidas accrued with their new teams are much lower down the list (not in the top 30).

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.


The crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) now stands at 0.78 per game now (compared to 0.80 last year, 0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


While the Coyotes might look extremely evasive, next year they have league approval to move from disclosing injuries as upper/lower body to describing them as "somewhere in Arizona".

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • Click HERE if you want a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

7 March 2014

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 60-game report

This is my latest update for the 2013/14 regular season on which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to its 60th game. (This follows on from my 50-game update.)

[Click to enlarge any image]

Commercial break...
  • For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis
  • I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H)
  • I will be hopefully also contributing on an irregular basis to Hockey Prospectus
Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 60 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season)

CHIP figures in graphical form (paler bars represent the three "retired" players on LTIR noted below):


The same for AMIP (teams in the same order as the CHIP chart for ease of comparison):


The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 51-60 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • The Red Wings hit hardest for the second consecutive update (with more Zettersyuk-related pain yet to come)
  • Conversely, the Coyotes followed up with another very healthy stretch (actually only two MGL - the other two being adjustments from a previous period), which helped them to a very Coyote-like 4-4-2 record over those games
  • Although the Olympic break fell after the 60-game for a few teams, so not strictly 100% relevant for this update, I make it that there were 24 players who missed their team's last game before the break, but were then available for the first game after the break.  Perhaps a slight counterpoint to the complaints about the handful of players who returned from Sochi injured (upsetting one big-shouldered GM to the point he seemingly forgot there was something important he had to do before the trade deadline)
The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:



With Stamkos, Gaborik and Rinne now back in action, which of the three would you think has the best chance of getting injured again before the end of the year?  No joKing.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.


The crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) has actually dropped from 0.80 per game through the 50-game mark to 0.77 per game now (compared to 0.80 last year, 0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).  Related to the Olympic break?

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


Philip Larsen has managed to sneak in a very rare undisclosed Oiler injury under the radar of the local media, presumably distracted by the rampant competition to see which writer could make last contact with the door hitting Ales Hemsky on his way out.

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • Click HERE if you want a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

27 January 2014

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 50-game report

This is my latest update for the 2013/14 regular season on which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to its 50th game. (This follows on from my mid-season analysis.)

[Click to enlarge any image]

Commercial break...
  • For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis
  • I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H)
  • I will be hopefully also contributing on an irregular basis to Hockey Prospectus
Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 50 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season)

CHIP figures in graphical form (paler bars represent the three "retired" players on LTIR noted below):


The same for AMIP (teams in the same order as the CHIP chart for ease of comparison):


The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 42-50 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • Pretty much a tie at the top between Pittsburgh, Carolina and Detroit now, the Red Wings clearly having it pretty rough over the last stretch to make up a lot of ground, with Darren Helm, Jonas Gustavsson, Jonathan Ericsson, Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk, Daniel Alfredsson and "Stephen Weiss" each missing at least six of the nine games covered since the mid-point.
  • Minnesota also notable movers, the fairly modest 32 man-games lost in the period unfortunately mostly coming from key contributors Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Josh Harding and Jared Spurgeon.
  • Conversely, Florida's 29 man-games in the period don't stack up to a huge amount in CHIP terms. Not until Dale Tallon goes all Cam Barker on those players anyway.
  • Ottawa finally hit some (still mild) injury adversity, Jason Spezza and Chris Neil getting knocked down by some stray tumbleweed while innocently walking through the treatment room.
The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:



As if to illustrate the problems with using unstable TOI figures derived for goalies, Anton Khudobin has actually shot up towards the top of the CMIP list despite now being healthy, because his average time in goal is now much higher as he plays much more while Cam Ward is hurt instead.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.


The crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) continues to regress back towards that in previous years, now at 0.80 per game (0.80 last year, 0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Very encouraging to see the re-emergence of "body soreness" as an acceptable descriptor, with Buffalo's Mark Pysyk seemingly the latest to be afflicted.

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


I was going to comment on the negative correlation between the Oilers' injury disclosure and on-ice success, but having reflected on the possible consequences, I thought it would be worthwhile to look up the resume of Kevin Lowe once again. There's a lot of conversation about Lowe's vices but people are ignoring a whole resume of experience and success. For more regarding Lowe's career see the provided link. http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=33071

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • Click HERE if you want a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

5 January 2014

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - mid-season report

This is my latest update for the 2013/14 regular season on which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to mid-season, i.e. after the 41st game for each. (This follows on from my 30-game analysis.)

Commercial break...
  • For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis
  • I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H)
  • I will be hopefully also contributing on an irregular basis to Hockey Prospectus (see my first and second posts)
Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 41 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season) - for non-interesting reasons, average TOI figures aren't quite measured at the 30-game point this time around for a few teams, but of no great significance to the analysis

CHIP figures in graphical form:


The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 31-41 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • Columbus sneak into top CHIP spot thanks to Nathan Horton's continued (but now ended) absence, plus another Marian Gaborik owee and Sergei Bobrovsky's turn on the NHL goalie groinaround
  • A very impressive and highly publicised (amazingly) 95 MGL in 11 games piled up by Pittsburgh, who obviously went 9-2 in that stretch, possibly in part due to facing plenty of non-playoff opposition in the fearsome Eastern Conference and 37 of the MGL being down to Tomas Vokoun, Andrew Ebbett, Tanner Glass and Jayson Megna
  • If weighting by TOI, Columbus haven't suffered as much as Pittsburgh, Carolina and Anaheim, although each of the latter three teams' AMIP figures are probably somewhat inflated by the weight placed on long absences to Vokoun, Anton Khudobin and Viktor Fasth respectively
  • Big movers include Boston (Eriksson, McQuaid, Seidenberg, Kelly, DOUGIE Hamilton and Kelly) and Detroit (Helm, Howard, Franzen, Weiss, DeKeyser, Zetterberg, Abdelkader, Nyquist) upwards and Edmonton in the unfamiliar direction of downwards
  • Ottawa's good health (prior to the latest Jason Spezza injury) is still pretty remarkable, but their CHIP figure pro-rated over 82 games would still only put them the third healthiest over the six years I have recorded (behind Carolina's 64 MGL and $1.2m CHIP in 2010/11 and the Rangers' 30 MGL and $1.3m CHIP in 2008/09)
  • Worth repeating that the Flyers have been essentially very healthy all year too - they would lie in a clear 29th place by CHIP if discounting the permanent/long-term losses of Chris Pronger and M-A Bourdon
The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:



A few of the big CHIPers (Horton, Jovanovski, Clowe, Quick, Bozak) are now playing and living up to every penny of their contracts again, so expect the very long-term cases to dominate the top of the table the rest of the way  Tampa Bay clearly missing the minutes usually munched by Brian Lee much more than those by the Stamkos guy.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.


The crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) continues to regress back towards that in previous years, now at 0.82 per game (0.80 last year, 0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Derick BrASSard's unfortunate case of back side pressure sadly only got classified as lower body, while I will continue to monitor closely the outbreak of "total body soreness" currently afflicting Patrik Elias and Anton Volchenkov in New Jersey.

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


Expect the Flames' figure to plummet further under the direction of known media recluse Brian Burke.  Since last time, we've had flu, ankle, two knees and an illness from them, although the last one might have been Bobby Ryan trying to spell something else.

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • Get in touch if you want a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player (web sharing of this no longer playing ball with me)
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

15 December 2013

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 30-game report

This is my third look for the 2013/14 regular season at which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness. 

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to its 30th game. (Amazingly, this follows on from my 20-game analysis.)

For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis and if I find time after figuring out how to best to incorporate a reference to Derick Brassard's injured posterior in the next update, I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H).

Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 30 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season) - for non-interesting reasons, average TOI figures aren't quite measured at the 30-game point this time around for a few teams, but of no great significance to the analysis

The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 21-30 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • Columbus (Horton, Gaborik, Dubinsky) and Tampa Bay (Stamkos and a bunch of not-Stamkoses) the most notable risers
  • Ottawa's only significant losses remain on the scoreboard and in Eugene Melnyk's bank balance
  • With only one game missed among the group, the health of the Rangers defense clearly benefitting from the shift away from the maniac Tortorella's shot-block-at-all-costs philosophy, with only Vancouver's blueline being healthier, clearly benefitting from the shift towards the maniac Tortorella's shot-block-at-all-costs philosophy (Staal and Edler injuries after Game 30 not yet showing up here)
  • As you would expect, the lack of injuries in Buffalo over the 10-game period has contributed to the team's dramatic turnaround to elite status
  • As you would expect, the lack of goaltender injuries in Calgary over the whole season has contributed to the team's stellar save percentage

The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:

As the video shows, Tim Gleason's absences have been of precisely the same value as Evgeni Nabokov's in terms of TOI, with the obvious flaw being that Gleason's save percentage is much, much better than Nabokov's.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.

 
Again, as more players have come back from injuries pre-dating the season starting, the crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) has drifted down further from 0.91 (10 games) to 0.86 (20 games) to 0.83, compared to 0.80 per game last year (0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


A couple of rare lapses of disclosure in Carolina.  Interestingly, the Flames have a regular injury update page on their official website, though it still doesn't preclude them from having one or two UBI/LBI cases, nor from Brian Burke firing the page so he can announce the injuries himself in a regular press conference (but not during his annual Christmas injury freeze).

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • I've once again stuck a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player on the web HERE
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com