2 December 2012

Board of the Lockout: Part Two

[Now updated to cover all 30 teams]

Much of the frustration of fans and players during the ongoing NHL work stoppage / owners' lockout / "lack of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement" has been that while players have been entirely free to express their opinions and put their names to in-no-way-at-all-coordinated social media commentary on their league adversaries, the NHL's gag order on team executives leaves everyone in the dark about whether there is a split among owners or what Lou Lamoriello would put on his Instagram account.

As the NHL Board of Governors prepares to meet later this week in order to decide exactly what to select next from their vast menu of P.R. screw ups, little is known about many of the diverse individuals rich, old, white men that sit on the Board.

Here is a brief snippet of information on these people, resulting from several months of investigative journalism (bolstered by 10-15 minutes skimming Wikipedia and bios on team websites):

Anaheim Ducks: Henry Samueli
After acquiring the team from the Walt Disney Company and changing its name from the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, to avoid being associated with a Mickey Mouse operation, Mr. Samueli is presumably recommending to the Board of Governors that the league in future be known as the National Hockey League of Mighty F***- ups for the reverse reason.

Boston Bruins: Jeremy M. Jacobs
Serving on the U.S. Travel and Tourism Advisory Board and described as "a leading advocate for tourism in the United States", Mr. Jacobs has been credited with the recent upsurge in visitors to destinations such as Providence, RI, Peoria, IL and Oklahoma City.

Buffalo Sabres: Terrence M. Pegula
After apparently telling his business partner in 1983: “If I ever have more than two nickels to my name, I’m going to buy the Buffalo Sabres one day”, Mr. Pegula has now been reprimanded by Commisioner Bettman and his fellow Governors for giving the impression to players that NHL franchises could possibly be worth in excess of 11 cents.

Calgary Flames: N. Murray Edwards
Mr. Edwards employs over 15,000 people across numerous companies, with an impressive 11,500 of these not having been acquired in lopsided trades with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Carolina Hurricanes: Peter Karmanos Jr.
69 years old and of Greek descent, Mr. Karmanos is viewed with some suspicion by his fellow Governors, who only know him as “that Chelios guy”.

Chicago Blackhawks: W. Rockwell "Rocky" Wirtz
Mr. Wirtz managed the Judge & Dolph Ltd liquor distributorship until October 2007, opting to step down thanks to the kindly suggestion of newly-drafted Patrick Kane that he could “handle it from here”.

Colorado Avalanche: Josh Kroenke
Although Mr. Kroenke’s father, Stan, is the owner of Kroenke Sports Enterprises, which includes the Avalanche as well as several other sports franchises, the Avalanche are in the name of Josh, to satisfy NFL ownership restrictions that forbid a team owner being dumb enough to also be an NHL owner.

Columbus Blue Jackets: John P. McConnell
Mr. McConnell is CEO of Worthington Industries, a company whose philosophy is "an unwavering commitment to the customer, and one of the strongest employee/employer partnerships in American industry" and majority owner of the Blue Jackets, whose philosophy isn't.

Dallas Stars: Tom Gaglardi
In talking about his organisation's teamworking philosophy, Mr. Gaglardi states that "We will all be pulling the same rope", said rope being the one used to pull Senior Adviser, Bob Gainey's hand away from the telephone when he's thinking about calling Glen Sather.

Detroit Red Wings: Mike Ilitch
Despite having little or no direct involvement in the team’s achievements, each of Mr. Ilitch’s seven children has his or her name engraved on the Stanley Cup, barely leaving any room for Chris Osgood’s name.

Edmonton Oilers: Daryl Katz
After the empty threat to move his team and the stockpiling of successive lottery pick impact forwards, Mr. Katz is believed to be considering whether his next step is to add 1,723 NHL points to his resume or to just let Nail Yakupov live in his basement.

Florida Panthers: Cliff Viner
Mr. Viner is quoted as seeking three things when interviewing potential employees: "Character, character and character." Since this is clearly only one thing, it is believed the other two things are "willingness to accept an inflated salary to get my team above the salary floor and a large ticket-buying family".

Los Angeles Kings: Timothy J. Leiweke
As President and CEO of AEG, operators of over 100 entertainment and sporting venues, including Sprint Center (Kansas City, MO), Ahoy Arena (Rotterdam) and Wukesong Arena (Beijing), Mr. Leiweke is currently sharing with the Board his vast expertise at making money out of buildings with absolutely no hockey in them.

Minnesota Wild: Craig Leipold
Mr. Leipold "first was considered a potential owner or investor in the NBA ... He attributed this interest to the fact that he knew the sport of basketball well. He became interested in ownership of a professional ice hockey franchise because there were more opportunities than in basketball." It is unknown why Mr. Leipold has such an affinity with Commissioner Bettman.

Montreal Canadiens: Geoff Molson
A 40-year-old Twitter user, Mr. Molson's personal ambition is to someday be allowed by Jeremy Jacobs to speak at a Board meeting or to be allowed to get up to use the bathroom.

Nashville Predators: Joel Dobberpuhl
After turning down applications from Warren Woo, Thomas G. Cigarran, Christopher C. Cigarran, Herbert A. Fritch, DeWitt C. Thompson V and DeWitt C. Thompson VI in the belief they were fake names, the Board of Governors finally settled on accepting Mr. Dobberpuhl to be the representative of the Predators' ownership group.

New Jersey Devils: Lou Lamoriello
Despite the obvious differences in background, team-building philosophy and harmony with league officials, Mr. Lamoriello is understood to side with Rangers’ owner James Dolan on financial issues during Board meetings, as both teams derive the majority of their revenue from the attendance of Rangers fans.

New York Islanders: Charles B. Wang
In his business career, Mr. Wang was involved in many acquisitions said to involve “the immediate termination of top management and key employees”, two things which he hasn’t had to worry about in his hockey ownership career for some reason.

New York Rangers: James L. Dolan
Universally popular with Rangers fans, Mr. Dolan has earned lavish praise for his personnel decisions, such as not hiring Isiah Thomas as Rangers G.M. and not hiring Isiah Thomas as Rangers coach.

Ottawa Senators: Eugene Melnyk
Mr. Melynk is a significant investor in biopharmaceutical research and development, as evidenced by the impressive $16m commitment to trial technology designed to keep Sergei Gonchar on the ice beyond his natural human capabilities.

Philadelphia Flyers: Ed Snider
Thanks to Mr. Snider’s vision of "Take what you do well and grow it”, the local economy continues to experience double-digit annual growth in the Horrific Goaltending and Hypocritical Long-Term Contract sectors.

Phoenix Coyotes: Nathaniel H. League
A reclusive owner, who hasn’t been seen in public since June 2012.

Pittsburgh Penguins: David Morehouse
Mr. Morehouse is credited with increasing the Penguins' commercial success due to his emphasis on branding and marketing, concepts the NHL would love to capitalise on, stymied only by the league's failure to find a Penguins player to brand and market the absolute hell out of.

San Jose Sharks: Kevin Compton
Mr. Compton assumed the role of the Sharks’ governor when fellow owner, Greg Jamison, became involved with a group looking to purchase the Phoenix Coyotes, but is due to relinquish the position back to Mr. Jamison when the Coyotes sale process finally falls through in the year 2435.

St. Louis Blues: Tom Stillman
As the newest member of the NHL Board of Governors, Mr. Stillman was recently subjected to a traumatic and lengthy rookie hazing ritual, by being forced to attend a meeting of the NHL Board of Governors.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jeff Vinik
After becoming owner of the Lightning, Mr. Vinik pledged to construct a team of which fans would be proud "on and off the ice", and has taken under three years to fulfil both parts of that mission.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Larry Tanenbaum
Mr. Tanenbaum also serves as a Governor for the NBA's Toronto Raptors and MLS team, Toronto FC, thus gaining valuable insight from almost trebling his exposure to executives of sports teams more successful than his.

Vancouver Canucks: Francesco Aquilini
Mr. Aquilini is described as “both a starter and closer”, making the number of Italian-Canadian starters associated with the Canucks two / one. [Delete as appropriate depending on whether you are reading before or after one minute past the end of the lockout]

Washington Capitals: Ted Leonsis
Mr. Leonsis also serves on the board of directors of Groupon, though his ideas about making offers involving ridiculous discounts with several unattractive conditions attached are understood to be thought of as “extreme and unrealistic” by the Groupon board.

Winnipeg Jets: Mark Chipman
Long before re-locating the NHL’s Atlanta Thrashers, Mr. Chipman and his ownership group moved the Moose from Minnesota to Manitoba, the remainder of his vast fortune in the Canadian logistics industry presumably earned from delivering beavers to Saskatchewan, maple syrup to Nunavut and bags of milk to Don Cherry's Eskimo farm.

28 November 2012

Board of the Lockout: Part One (?)

Much of the frustration of fans and players during the ongoing NHL work stoppage / owners' lockout / "lack of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement" has been that while players have been entirely free to express their opinions and put their names to in-no-way-at-all-coordinated social media commentary on their league adversaries, the NHL's gag order on team executives leaves everyone in the dark about whether there is a split among owners or what Lou Lamoriello would put on his Instagram account.

As the NHL Board of Governors prepares to meet next week in order to decide exactly what to select next from their vast menu of P.R. screw ups, little is known about many of the diverse individuals rich, old white men that sit on the Board.

Here is a brief snippet of information on some of these people, resulting from several months of investigative journalism (bolstered by 10-15 minutes skimming Wikipedia and bios on team websites):

Boston Bruins: Jeremy M. Jacobs
Serving on the U.S. Travel and Tourism Advisory Board and described as "a leading advocate for tourism in the United States", Mr. Jacobs has been credited with the recent upsurge in visitors to destinations such as Providence, RI, Peoria, IL and Oklahoma City.

Carolina Hurricanes: Peter Karmanos Jr.
69 years old and of Greek descent, Mr. Karmanos is viewed with some suspicion by his fellow Governors, who only know him as “that Chelios guy”.

Chicago Blackhawks: W. Rockwell "Rocky" Wirtz
Mr. Wirtz managed the Judge & Dolph Ltd liquor distributorship until October 2007, opting to step down thanks to the kindly suggestion of newly-drafted Patrick Kane that he could “handle it from here”.

Colorado Avalanche: Josh Kroenke
Although Mr. Kroenke’s father, Stan, is the owner of Kroenke Sports Enterprises, which includes the Avalanche as well as several other sports franchises, the Avalanche are in the name of Josh, to satisfy NFL ownership restrictions that forbid a team owner being dumb enough to also be an NHL owner.

Columbus Blue Jackets: John P. McConnell
Mr. McConnell is CEO of Worthington Industries, a company whose philosophy is "an unwavering commitment to the customer, and one of the strongest employee/employer partnerships in American industry" and majority owner of the Blue Jackets, whose philosophy isn't.

Detroit Red Wings: Mike Ilitch
Despite having little or no direct involvement in the team’s achievements, each of Mr. Ilitch’s seven children has his or her name engraved on the Stanley Cup, barely leaving any room for Chris Osgood’s name.

Edmonton Oilers: Daryl Katz
After the empty threat to move his team and the stockpiling of successive lottery pick impact forwards, Mr. Katz is believed to be considering whether his next step is to add 1,723 NHL points to his resume or to just let Nail Yakupov live in his basement.

New York Islanders: Charles B. Wang
In his business career, Mr. Wang was involved in many acquisitions said to involve “the immediate termination of top management and key employees”, two things which he hasn’t had to worry about in his hockey ownership career for some reason.

New York Rangers: James L. Dolan
Universally popular with Rangers fans, Mr. Dolan has earned lavish praise for his personnel decisions, such as not hiring Isiah Thomas as Rangers G.M. and not hiring Isiah Thomas as Rangers coach.

Philadelphia Flyers: Ed Snider
Thanks to Mr. Snider’s vision of "Take what you do well and grow it”, the local economy continues to experience double-digit annual growth in the Horrific Goaltending and Hypocritical Long-Term Contract sectors.

Phoenix Coyotes: Nathaniel H. League
A reclusive owner, who hasn’t been seen in public since June 2012.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Larry Tanenbaum
Mr. Tanenbaum also serves as a Governor for the NBA's Toronto Raptors and MLS team, Toronto FC, thus gaining valuable insight from almost trebling his exposure to executives of sports teams more successful than his.

Vancouver Canucks: Francesco Aquilini
Mr. Aquilini is described as “both a starter and closer”, making the number of Italian-Canadian starters associated with the Canucks two / one. [Delete as appropriate depending on whether you are reading before or after one minute past the end of the lockout]

Washington Capitals: Ted Leonsis
Mr. Leonsis also serves on the board of directors of Groupon, though his ideas about making offers involving ridiculous discounts with several unattractive conditions attached are understood to be thought of as “extreme and unrealistic” by the Groupon board.

Winnipeg Jets: Mark Chipman
Long before re-locating the NHL’s Atlanta Thrashers, Mr. Chipman and his ownership group moved the Moose from Minnesota to Manitoba, the remainder of his vast fortune in the Canadian logistics industry presumably earned from delivering beavers to Saskatchewan, maple syrup to Nunavut and bags of milk to Don Cherry's Eskimo farm.

17 September 2012

NHL message to the fans - breaking it down

The following message to fans was issued by the National Hockey League on Sunday:

After being scrawled on a napkin by Bill Daly on Saturday.

Despite the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement…

Let’s make it sound as serious as facing the expiration of the last yoghurt in your refrigerator.

…the National Hockey League has been…

Scott Gomez? Oh, that doesn't read “National Hockey League has-been”.

…and remains…

Chelios?

…committed to negotiating around the clock…

This clock just seems to be situated in an entirely different location to wherever the Players are negotiating.

…to reach a new CBA that is fair to the Players and to the 30 NHL teams.

But to paraphrase Mike Milbury, all CBAs are created fair to the Players, but some are more fair than others.

Thanks to the conditions fostered by seven seasons under the previous CBA…

Which, ergo, was an unmitigated disaster for the League from the start.

…competitive balance has created arguably the most meaningful regular season in pro sports…

Just think how much more arguably meaningful we can make it by slashing it in half!

…a different team has won the Stanley Cup every year…

Though Vegas oddsmakers are strongly tipping the 2004/05 winners to triumph again this year.

…fans and sponsors have agreed the game is at its best…

Look, another group of faceless, wealth generators that you fans clearly have natural empathy with.

…and the League has generated remarkable growth and momentum.

Matched only by the League’s impending generation of remarkable stagnation and regression.

While our last CBA negotiation resulted in a seismic change…

[Insert Dustin Byfuglien summer diet joke here]

…in the League's economic system…

i.e. Bobby Holik being restricted to only 57% of League revenues in future.

…and produced corresponding on-ice benefits…

Fans and sponsors have agreed the shootout is wonderful.

…our current negotiation is focused on a fairer and more sustainable division…

Except for the Northwest Division, which will be garbage forever at this rate.

…of revenues with the Players as well as other necessary adjustments…

[Insert Dustin Byfuglien tailor joke here]

…consistent with the objectives of the economic system…

Lining Ed Snider’s caviar-plated pockets.

…we developed jointly with the NHL Players' Association seven years ago.

Whatever did happen to that lovely Mr Saskin?

Those adjustments are attainable through sensible, focused negotiation -- not through rhetoric.

That includes rhetorical questions such as: “These idiots can’t be stupid enough to cause another lockout, right?”

This is a time of year for all attention to be focused on the ice, not on a meeting room.

Which is why the League is staggered that the Players have not seriously considered its proposal to hold the playoffs across 12 Mexican cities during summer, ending in the re-branded Cancun StanCup Final in mid-September.

The League, the Clubs and the Players all have a stake in resolving our bargaining issues appropriately and getting the puck dropped as soon as possible.

Unless one Club’s fourth line Players have just iced the puck with no timeout available, where, as usual, that Club can suddenly discover several equipment problems preventing the puck from being dropped as soon as possible.

We owe it to each other…

“We” being the players, “it” being money and “each other” being the owners.

…to the game and, most of all, to the fans.

But we’re sure a disingenuous press release will keep you happy for a good couple of months.

16 July 2012

The Pain Game 2011/12 - an attempt to use GVT

Throughout the regular season, my usual breakdown of the extent of injury/illness absences on NHL teams uses cap hit (CHIP) and TOI/G (AMIP) as weights to apply to each player, in an attempt to quantify the significance of any absences.  A fuller description is found with the end of year figures for 2011/12.

Both methods have more than a few imperfections (as noted) but offer a reasonable indication.  As a third - and probably final - weighting factor, I thought I'd try using GVT, as developed by Tom Awad and described at hockeyprospectus.com.  In disgracefully crude short form, this is a metric placing a relative value on a player's contribution to goals scored and conceded by his team.

So, rather than cap hit, for example, I've just used instead a player's average GVT per game (or for goalies, GVT per game available for) in the 2011/12 regular season (taken from www.hockeyabstract.com) as the weighting, producing a cumulative team figure I'll imaginatively call GVTIP.

Disclaimers:
  • For players that missed the whole or the vast majority of the season, I've used the equivalent 2010/11 (or 2009/10) GVT figure.
  • Unlike TOI/G used in deriving AMIP, the GVT figure does not account for any differences between the figures accrued with different teams during the season for players traded mid-season etc.
  • The main drawback is sample size, in that GVT in only a single year (or part year) is likely to be a pretty volatile indicator of a player's relative value, so there are more than a few examples where a player's contribution - perhaps based on a handful of games only - to team GVTIP skews the result completely.  So I'm not guaranteeing it is foolproof by any means...
The reworked 2011/12 table, ranked by GVTIP with the other metrics for comparison:


 Thoughts:
  •  Of the top three CHIP numbers, GVT is much more favourable towards the Penguins missing Crosby, Letang, Staal and Malkin (contributing about 41 goals of their deficit between them) than the Canadiens going without Gomez, Markov and Gionta and the Blue Jackets being deprived of Huselius, Martinek, Methot, Carter and Tyutin, for example
  • The fact that Gomez and Markov each managed to get a negative GVT in their short periods of active duty actually imply that the Canadiens were several goals better off by them not being in the line-up for most of the year (told you there were distortions...) - believable for Gomez, perhaps not for Markov
  • On a similar theme, most of the Islanders' absences are pretty insignificant in terms of GVT, except for Mr Anomaly himself, Rick DiPietro, whose stellar play in the three seconds of health he managed to muster skews the team number into strongly negative territory all by himself
  • Conversely, the Blackhawks have a low CHIP number but are way up on GVTIP, largely due to Toews (fair enough) and Carcillo (okaaaayyyyy...)
  • As I think would be expected - and partly expecting some of the relative movements above - the GVTIP table is more tilted towards playoff teams with higher team GVT at the top end. Perhaps an argument for using share of team GVT as the weighting of player value at a team level?

9 July 2012

The Pain Game - 4-year analysis (2008/09 - 2011/12)

Another brief data dump of figures aggregated over the last four NHL regular seasons, surprisingly enough updated to include 2011/12.

Analyses of individual seasons (including explanations of the figures and their limitations) plus my equivalent aggregate analysis (aggreganalysis?) are at the following links:


Firstly, an updated ranking of teams by aggregate CHIP over the last four seasons (playoff teams highlighted; click to enlarge image):


Still no obvious correlation between playoff qualification and the degree and quantity of injuries/illnesses suffered.  The Islanders, Oilers and Wild (all long-term playoff absentees) sat in the top three positions for the table covering 2008/09 to 2010/11, but have all slipped down slightly since, mostly due to Messrs Markov and Crosby, plus the Flyers' rotating cast of retired-but-not-really-retired veterans.

The same figures grouped by division:


A bit over-simplistic, but still fairly interesting that the supposedly travel-weary Pacific has suffered both the fewest man-games lost and the lowest CHIP in each of the last four seasons (OK, two man-games away in 2008/09 from doing so), while the Atlantic has routinely been hit the hardest.  Maybe 95% due to Rick DiPietro, but interesting anyway...

The largest ten and smallest ten CHIP figures by a team in a single season over the last four:


No changes at all in the bottom 10.  The Canadiens in the year just gone comfortably surpassed the Blues' previous high watermark, although worth noting that their CHIP number was still a lower proportion of the overall cap compared to the Blues' number from three years before.

The largest ten CHIP figures accumulated by a player in a single season over the last four:


None too surprisingly, Crosby and Markov each make their second appearance here, joined by Kristian Huselius who had the good fortune to only have to play in two games for the Blue Jackets in 2011/12.

23 June 2012

Is there a draft in here? (2012 edition)

After a one-year hiatus (perversely caused by my being in Canada), here is this year's attempt at a totally after-the-fact not-live live blog of the first round of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft from the CONSOL Energy Center in Pittsburgh (the draft, not me), affording you to chance to re-live all the excitement of everything you already watched and/or read about. 

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In his intro, TSN host James Duthie refers to the impending draftees as "the class of '94", immediately making any viewer over the age of 30 feel as old as John Muckler looks.

We then see a piece of VT (that's videotape, not an inappropriate shot of 2010 first rounder, Vladimir Tarasenko) in which a handful of the expected high picks are talking to camera while seated on a wooden chair in a sparse room featuring many dangerously low, dangling light fittings...Good practice for whichever player ends up playing in Nassau Coliseum anyway.

Next we see a clip of Oilers veteran, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, apparently being denied entry to the draft floor initially due to a total lack of credentials...Bafflingly, Oilers GM Steve Tambellini seems to have been allowed to overcome this handicap and remain as Oilers GM.

Our first visit to TSN Insider (and he is indeed inside tonight) Darren Dreger on the floor (though disappointingly standing up) with a Jordan Staal update...Jordan Staal update: There is no update on Jordan Staal

Now upstairs (up about two stairs, it appears) to Gord Miller, as usual accompanied by the universally respected Bob McKenzie and the universally bespectacled Pierre McGuire...Signs are that the Oilers will be keeping the #1 pick (possibly for eternity)

Just in case TSN were thought not to be occupying every part of the building, we finally get a look at the so-called "Social Lounge", where Alyonka Larionov will seemingly be doing the TwitBook type stuff with all the 18-year-old boys that come in...The set just misses the flashy VIP club area look it was going for, instead pulling off the moderately expensive private dentist waiting room motif

The hearty boos either mean Commissioner Bettman is approaching the podium to kick things off or Marc-André Fleury has just conceded another goal to the Philadelphia Flyers...It appears to be the former, sadly...Bettman routinely thanks the city of Pittsburgh, congratulates them on the 2013 Stanley Cup victory, routinely welcomes all the viewers across North America on various platforms and at draft parties and routinely ignores the watching inhabitants of Europånsyland

There follows a bit of a delay, apparently due to a "staging issue" with the podium...Must take a while to raise the microphone from the default Bettman setting

#1 - Edmonton Oilers select Nail Yakupov (Sarnia Sting - OHL)
Yakupov put up some "Stamkosian-like" numbers, according to Miller, which seems to be at least one simile too many...McGuire declares that the Oilers can now "amp it up, offensively"...Judging by the single 40-watt spotlight the arena staff have decided was sufficient to illuminate the whole stage, the Oilers might be asked to amp up the stage too, if they don't borrow some of those bulbs from the intro instead...In his interview with Duthie, Tambellini confirms that his goal is to add defensive depth "this spring"...Either he needs to hurry up, or the seasons work somewhat differently in Alberta to what I had thought

Away from the stage, we see a few fleeting glimpses of 2009 draft star, Brian Burke, but sadly no evidence of a microphone in his vicinity, of any flagrant intimidation of Bryan Murray or of any discreet barn-booking

TRADE: Ľubomír Višňovský and a pack of three energy-saving lightbulbs has been shipped to the Islanders for their second round pick in 2013

#2 - Columbus Blue Jackets select Ryan Murray (Everett Silvertips - WHL)
With no visible sign of Craig Patrick's hand up his back, highly-acclaimed GM Scott Howson calls out Murray's name...McKenzie: "not saying he's Nick Lidström", McGuire: "not Scotty Niedermayer", me: "not Ken Daneyko's third-grade English teacher"...Howson suggests that Murray is going to play with a lot of good players, presumably looking ahead already to him being traded away for nothing or next year's repeat appearance at the World Championships...Nothing to report on the Rick Nash front

TRADE: Mike Ribeiro is on his way to Washington to play the important role of second-line center behind Jay Beagle...Cody Eakin and a second round pick heading to Dallas

#3 - Montréal Canadiens select Alex Galchenyuk (Sarnia Sting - OHL)
As predicted by McGuire...In carrying out the podium formalities, a disappointing lack of pranks from new GM, Marc Bergevin, despite the perfect opportunity to leave a whoopee cushion for Trevor Timmins to step on...In a frankly shocking break from the norm, McGuire likes this pick...McKenzie suggests Galchenyuk is "more multi-dimensional than Yakupov", presumably meaning to say "multi-dimensioner than"...Amusingly, lots of talk about how the pick takes pressure of the some of the Canadiens' current centers (named) and prospects at the position, without a single Gomez mention...At the interview desk, Bergevin gets Duthie to pull his finger

Bettman steps forward again to formally announce the Ducks/Islanders deal, saying the name Ľubomír Višňovský as if he has got absolutely no idea who/what he is...Burke is spotted in conversation with Wild GM, Chuck Fletcher, presumably indirectly challenging Fletcher's old man to a mud wrestle in a Florida swamp

#4 - New York Islanders select Griffin Reinhart (Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL)
TSN's caption for Reinhart has him projected as a "Complete D", which seems a bit judgemental...I can see at least two Wangs on stage, plus coach Jack Capuano, looking like he just got out of bed. A bed situated on an aircraft carrier.

Dreger reports that Burke has been talking to Vancouver GM, Mike Gillis, about Roberto Luongo...Burke's tie still mostly done up

#5 - Toronto Maple Leafs select Morgan Rielly (Moose Jaw Warriors - WHL)
Burke offers some incredibly insincere congratulations to the Los Angeles Kings on their championship, plus some slightly more heartfelt thanks to Pittsburgh and an ingratiating hello to Leafs season ticket holders, whose empty platinum seats are sat in front of thousands of televisions across Ontario...Merely an "outstanding pick" this time, says McGuire...I enjoy the congruence of Burke saying the words "Moose Jaw"...Only 15 of the 25 Leafs assistant GMs appear to have made the trip on stage...A caption reveals that Rielly was ranked first at the combine in the right-hand grip test, but only third on the left-hand grip test, so something to work on...Burke explains to Duthie that he won't allow his draft picks to wear a ballcap on stage as it obscures their faces...He stonewalls a Luongo question, then threatens he would have to kill Duthie if he divulged anything at all (a joke, I think)...As we head to commercials, the camera panning away just catches Burke smothering Duthie with a ballcap

#6 - Anaheim Ducks select Hampus Lindholm (Rögle BK - Sweden)
 Another "Complete D" apparently...I have him down as being among the top five to ten Hampuses ever drafted...Lindholm exhibits a fine combover...McKenzie and McGuire discuss Bobby Ryan's reported disgruntlement

#7 - Minnesota Wild select Matt Dumba (Red Deer Rebels - WHL)
After hearing his name called, Dumba exchanges celebratory hugs with 300 people in his row before heading for the stage..."Hits like Scott Stevens" according to McKenzie, so a very valuable pick in 2003

TRADE: News coming through that Jordan Staal is moving, right before the Carolina Hurricanes were due to select...The deal announced as Staal to Carolina for the #8 pick, Brandon Sutter and Brian Dumoulin...McGuire amps up his excitometer to "Rabid Drooling", speculating that the Penguins will now be pushing hard to sign Zach Parise...I am left stunned by the realisation that the NHL seems to be using an electronic draft board for the first time

#8 - Pittsburgh Penguins select Derrick Pouliot (Portland Winterhawks - WHL)
McGuire boasts that he knew this pick was coming (yawn) and appropriately begins to gush like an oil derrick in Ray Shero's general direction...I wish he could transmit some kind of small indication that he likes the direction of the Penguins franchise...I blank out the next five minutes of Shero and Jim Rutherford being interviewed

#9 - Winnipeg Jets select  Jacob Trouba (U.S. NDTP - USHL)
Yet another big D-man - is there any other kind?..."Very good, smart pick" says McGuire - is there any other kind?...We are shown (repeatedly) a clip of an 11-year-old Trouba obliterating some Swedish kid with an open ice hit...Should make him popular in most of Canada

Calgary GM Jay Feaster is working the phones...I suspect he is checking if it is legal for the always re-building Flames to draft a 35-year-old free agent or he is negotiating with Olli Jokinen's agent

#10 - Tampa Bay Lightning select Slater Koekkoek (Peterborough Petes - OHL)
When the clock reaches zero, GM Steve Yzerman pops out and says Koekkoek...That makes seven D-men in a row...Coincidentally, that's also the name of the New York Rangers' strategy in their own zone

#11 - Washington Capitals select Filip Forsberg (Leksands IF - Sweden)
Copious amounts of booing from the Pens-loving audience (possibly including McGuire) as GM George McPhee arrives on stage, prompting him to disdainfully offer his sarcastic gratitude...He ends Forsberg's free-fall down the board...This pick having been acquired from Colorado and used to select a Forsberg surely viewed as the height of irony by any Canadian recording artists in attendance

#12 - Buffalo Sabres select Mikhail Grigorenko (Québec Remparts - QMJHL)
McGuire: "A sham, a disgrace and a cataclysmically dire selection by that amoeba in a suit, Regier"...(No, not really, believe it or not)...McKenzie notes that one criticism of the Russian scorer from scouts who watched the Russian scorer is that the Russian scorer is an enigmatic Russian scorer

#13 - Dallas Stars select Radek Faksa (Kitchener Rangers - OHL)
Faksa has "Bobby Holik qualities" apparently...Personally, I can't wait for his failed stint as a hugely overpaid checker in New York then...We learn that Faksa left home at 11, in which case, I'm more than impressed that he made it to Pittsburgh in time for 13

TRADE: The Flames trade down from #14 to #21, also obtaining #42 from the Sabres (the second round pick, not Nathan Gerbe)...Slightly less exciting a move than the Staal trade and McGuire is a bit upset with the Flames

#14 - Buffalo Sabres select Zemgus Girgensons (Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL)
I have him down as being among the top five to ten Zemguses ever drafted...Also the highest Latvian player ever picked up, beating Sandis Ozolinsh's DUI arrest in 2006

#15 - Ottawa Senators select Cody Ceci (Ottawa 67s - OHL)
TSN are really starting to tip their pitches even more than normal, as Ceci's selection is pre-empted by a shot of his big red entourage (I thought that was Bruce Boudreau's nickname?) in the stands...TSN's final draft expert (with no chairs left to support him), Craig Button, compares Ceci to Larry Murphy...Must be something to do with how much he'll get booed in Toronto...Everybody pronounces his name "See-See", apart from Bryan Murray, who is forced to settle for "Shee-Shee"

#16 - Washington Capitals select Tom Wilson (Plymouth Whalers - OHL)
This year's Lucic comparable...McGuire notes that the Flyers were "salivating" - either at the chance of drafting the giant Wilson or because Bob Clarke has fallen asleep drooling at the draft table again

So we're just over halfway through the round, clocking in at a leisurely 2h 23m...No time to see anything from the Social Lounge on TV, if that was ever the plan, even though most of the GMs have avoided the pre-pick spiel

#17 - San Jose Sharks select Tomáš Hertl (Slavia Praha - Czech Republic)
Hertl joins Faksa and Koekkoek at the head of the class for bad pun potential in headlines, if nothing else...I've got nothing else

#18 - Chicago Blackhawks select Teuvo Teräväinen (Jokerit - Finland)
Some pre-pick spiel from GM Stan Bowman, as he says hello to the Los Angeles Kings, thanks everybody at the draft party in Chicago for their hospitality and congratulates the people of Pittsburgh...Cheap applause for Hawks prospect and Pittsburgh native, Brandon Saad, as he is given the task of announcing the pick, the hubbub enough to make his words almost completely inaudible...McKenzie drops a most welcome reference to stone-faced draft legend, Jarmo Kekäläinen

#19 - Tampa Bay Lightning select Andrei Vasilevski (Ufa Tolpar - Russian Jrs)
McGuire is enthused by how "pro-active" the Lightning are being...I must agree, what with the way they are picking players unlike the other teams who just stand around and wait for players to draft themselves

#20 - Philadelphia Flyers select Scott Laughton (Oshawa Generals - OHL)
Some extremely mild booing now from the crowd as the Flyers prepare to pick...GM Paul Holmgren stoically thinks back to happier times and assumes they are chanting for Brian Boucher as the noise intensifies when he approaches the podium...A pick not predicted by TSN for once...Laughton is compared to Mike Richards, who is also said to be a favourite player of his...Bartenders in Philadelphia (and Dean Lombardi) rejoice

#21 - Calgary Flames select Mark Jankowksi (Stanstead College - Canadian HS)
A "legendary" pick, says McGuire, though his cackling suggests he means it is a surprise rather than anything else...As a Canadian high school player, Jankowski is expected to take several years before being able to face the step up in competition that the NHL presents but a significantly shorter period of time before being able to face the step down in competition that playing in the Northwest Division presents

#22 - Pittsburgh Penguins select Olli Määttä (London Knights - OHL)
I step away to slit my wrists during McGuire's latest genuflective essay about the Penguins, which produces more metaphorical oil spills on the floor of the TSN set

Since we are so far ahead of schedule (ahem), we get to see a brief shot of Cody Ceci using the Social Lounge computer, presumably booking himself in for a scaling and a minor filling...Dreger has been absent for a long while, suggesting he either has nothing to report or Marc Bergevin has handcuffed him to a skate sharpening machine

#23 - Florida Panthers select Mike Matheson (Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL)
Looks a bit ginger

#24 - Boston Bruins select Malcolm Subban (Belleville Bulls - OHL)
Another pleasing (but final?) reference to the Phil Kessel trade, as the Bruins are forced to live off their own picks for a change...Brother P.K. graciously avoids what must have been a strong urge to slewfoot Malcolm on his way down the steps...In interview, Subban Jr reveals that he models himself on Henrik Lundqvist...My picture broke up sufficiently that I couldn't tell if he was referring to his game or the three-piece suit he was wearing

#25 - St. Louis Blues select Jordan Schmaltz (Green Bay Gamblers - USHL)
More technical difficulties chez LW - I'll blame Marc Bergevin...I presume this guy is completely different to fellow Blues prospect Jaden Schwartz?

#26 - Vancouver Canucks select Brendan Gaunce (Belleville Bulls - OHL)
Assistant GM Laurence Gilman avoids shameful embarrassment by remembering to praise the hospitality of Allegheny County rather than just the city of Pittsburgh...Things also speed up with a lengthy tribute to Stan Smyl for no real reason other than his retired number being on the back of the jersey to be presented to the drafted player...As Gaunce makes his way promptly to the stage along a spacious pathway, McGuire confusingly remarks that he "needs to get quicker, especially in confined areas"...Miller comments that "the retired #12 goes on his back", but I don't see the shot of Smyl jumping Gaunce from behind that I expected...In the Duthie vs Gillis confrontation, the Canucks GM (just) falls short of the death threat benchmark when faced with the obligatory Luongo question

#27 - Phoenix Coyotes select Henrik Samuelsson (Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL)
Samuelsson and father Ulf appear to be sitting with every single ex-Hartford Whaler teammate of Samuelsson Sr in the stands...Group photo on stage (for the Coyotes' front office, not the Whalumni) - definitely the first time I've ever seen a jacked-up Rick Knickle

Dreger is loitering by the Rangers' draft table and reveals that the Rangers had some discussions around Jordan Staal (under the league's compulsory Staal brothers trade requirements)...GM Glen Sather is staring in utter confusion at his cellphone as if he doesn't know how to turn it on or activate the cigar dispenser function

#28 - New York Rangers select Brady Skjei (U.S. NTDP - USHL)
Yet another U.S. player for the Rangers...Said to be a great skater, but "not Ryan McDonagh", three words that fill Canadiens fans with joy every time they appear on their team's line-up card...More apparent technical issues give me pictures but no sound for a stretch...The several minutes of televised NHL coverage without McGuire talking over it are possibly a world first

#29 - New Jersey Devils select Stefan Matteau (U.S. NTDP - USHL)
I can't see how anyone will think of an interesting angle to write about for this pick...

#30 - Los Angeles Kings select Tanner Pearson (Barrie Colts - OHL)
As we are past the four-hour mark now, Bettman wisely ushers Kings' co-director of amateur scouting, Mike Futa, to the podium...I'm guessing Pearson doesn't mind the wait, since he was passed over at the previous two drafts

Not even any time for the usual Canadian triumphalism this year or for the impending 1 July PariSutergeddon coverage, as the show wraps up almost as soon as Pearson gets his jersey on.

1 May 2012

NHL Awards 2011/12 - meet the contenders


 Seemingly the only public announcements made by the NHL over the last few weeks that haven't been delivered via the medium of a 163-second long video narrated by a depressed-sounding Brendan Shanahan have been those revealing the finalists for the various awards that are voted on by the fine, thoughtful individuals of the hockey writing and broadcasting community and NHL general managers (rather than being automatically determined by those stupid geeks who, like, count stuff).

Perhaps the Shanaban technique will also be employed on the day of the awards show itself...

"I'm Brendan Shanahan of the National Hockey League's Department of Slightly Awkward Prize Giving Ceremonies, in association with Nickelback.  On several nights in different cities, lots of incidents occurred in games between several teams and several more teams..."

"...As the column shows, the beat writer has not seen this player in action all season, therefore this is classed as a 'blindside' vote.  The Department of Announcing the Winner has chosen to suspend the cultural relevance of the minor celebrity making the award for fifteen years."

...but we'll probably just have to settle for another uncomfortably uncomfortable ceremony in Las Vegas in June, propped up by special appearances by Hannes Hyvonen and the Ferraro twins (via satellite link, should their schedules allow).

Here is a quick rundown of the main awards and those in the running:

Hart Memorial Trophy

Supposed to be awarded to: The player adjudged most valuable to his team
In practice, normally awarded to: The player with the most points and/or who happened to get hot in the last month of the season

Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers)
Has a chance to be a rare goaltender MVP, following previous winners of the modern era, Jose Theodore and Dominik Hasek, suggesting the only writers in favour of goalies for the award are female voters and voters that think Dominik Hasek was a pretty good goalie.

Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins)
While, of course, honoured to be the overwhelming favourite to add this award to his burgeoning collection of individual achievements, is understandably keener to bring home the much bigger prize last won by his team in 2009.  Or if the IIHF World Championships eludes him again, maybe the Stanley Cup next year.

Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Fired an impressive 60 goals to again lead the league, despite the formidable handicap of not playing a single game against a Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender.

James Norris Memorial Trophy

Supposed to be awarded to: The defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position
In practice, normally awarded to: Nicklas Lidstrom

Zdeno Chara (Boston Bruins)
Performed at his customary high standard offensively (52 points), defensively (+33 rating) and with discipline (only defenseman in the league not to take a retaliatory penalty against Brad Marchand).

Erik Karlsson (Ottawa Senators)
A player team owner Eugene Melnyk thinks will "go down in history as one of the great defencemen of all time", which sounds more promising than the way the last Senators defenceman to score 17 or more goals in a season ended up "going down" and became "history".

Shea Weber (Nashville Predators)
Justifiably proud of being a finalist for a second straight year, but has promised not to rub his opponents' faces in it if he wins.

Vezina Trophy

Supposed to be awarded to: The goaltender who is adjudged to be the best at this position
In practice, normally awarded to: The goaltender who is adjudged to be at least as good as Jim Carey and Jose Theodore turned out to be

Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers)
Career season attributed in part to decreased level of fatigue from 10% reduction in number of starts and from 100% reduction in gameday shopping trips with Sean Avery.

Jonathan Quick (Los Angeles Kings)
Performed heroics to get the Kings into the playoffs, despite his misunderstanding of exactly what both Mike Richards and Jeff Carter meant when they promised on their separate arrivals to bring "an unprecedent level of scoring" to Los Angeles.

Pekka Rinne (Nashville Predators)
Signed a new deal during the season that will see his annual salary spike by 75%, commensurate with the 75% increase in shots he is liable to face next year.

Calder Memorial Trophy

Supposed to be awarded to: The player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League
In practice, normally awarded to: The player selected as the most proficient in what might be his third year of competition in the National Hockey League after what might be no or several years of competition in another professional league

Adam Henrique (New Jersey Devils)
Hoping to follow in the footsteps of the last Devils player to win the award, by monumentally screwing the New York Rangers in a bloated free agent deal several years later.

Gabriel Landeskog (Colorado Avalanche)
Hoping to follow in the footsteps of the last Avalanche player to win the award, by monumentally screwing the New York Rangers in a bloated free agent deal several years later.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Edmonton Oilers)
Thought by many to be too raw and slight of build to crack an NHL line-up, frustratingly did not get the opportunity to prove those people wrong due to him cracking the Oilers line-up instead.

Frank J. Selke Trophy

Supposed to be awarded to: The forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game
In practice, normally awarded to: The forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game while having the offensive ability to score at least 50 points

David Backes (St. Louis Blues)
A complete player, loved by Blues coach Ken Hitchcock, who can rely on him to carry out his comprehensive orders without complaint, though it remains unclear why Hitchcock can't take his car to the drive-thru window like the other KFC customers do.

Patrice Bergeron (Boston Bruins)
One of the league leaders in Corsi, apparently a measure of frequency a player covers defensively while a team-mate makes a play that really upsets the Buffalo Sabres' goalie coach.

Pavel Datsyuk (Detroit Red Wings)
So good defensively that while he was on the ice this season, the composite GAA of Jimmy Howard, Ty Conklin and Joey MacDonald was under 11.00.

Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy

Supposed to be awarded to: The player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey
In practice, normally awarded to: The player who missed the most games through injury the season before

Daniel Alfredsson (Ottawa Senators)
A player whose dedication will truly be tested next year (if not retiring) when forced to play for only $1m plus whatever the value of the coins thrown at him by Leafs fans comes to.

Joffrey Lupul (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Re-established himself after serious injury, setting a career high in days spent without getting traded for Chris Pronger.

Max Pacioretty (Montreal Canadiens)
One of the few members of the Canadiens organisation at the season's end to be recognised for his perseverance rather than his severance pay.

Lady Byng Memorial Trophy

Supposed to be awarded to: The player adjudged to have exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability
In practice, normally awarded to: The player adjudged to have had the fewest penalty minutes when the voters quickly skim down the list of top 20 scorers five minutes before the deadline to send in their ballot

Brian Campbell (Florida Panthers)
Not originally among the finalists for the award, until NHL staff noticed there was something suspicious about the four thousand write-in votes for every other player in the league all signed by somebody with handwriting very similar to R.J. Umberger's.

Jordan Eberle (Edmonton Oilers)
High points totals and low penalty minutes do not suggest a frustrated player, but recent precedent suggests Jordan might tire of his perennially losing franchise and look to join the Blackhawks.

Matt Moulson (New York Islanders)
Scored 36 goals while only taking three minor penalties all season, proving only that less asbestos falls from the Nassau Coliseum ceiling above the goal crease than from that above the home penalty box.

Jack Adams Award

Supposed to be awarded to: The coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team's success
In practice, normally awarded to: The coach adjudged to have the most noticeably different personality to his predecessor, who probably didn't win as much too

Ken Hitchcock (St. Louis Blues)
Early season appointment and stunning results led to the long-awaited return of positive headlines for the Blues, that disappointingly did not all use the line "Payne Relief".

Paul MacLean (Ottawa Senators)
Praised by senior players for sharing valuable insight from his playing days, but looked at with faces of utter confusion by less senior players when telling of his exploits in Winnipeg Jets playoff games.

John Tortorella (New York Rangers)
Despite a patchy 0-1-2 start, a famously terse relationship with the media and especially the double banishment of one particular team-first left winger, now enjoys a 23% approval rating among the knowledgable Madison Square Garden patrons, the highest by any Rangers coach in history.

General Manager of the Year Award

Supposed to be awarded to: Brian Burke
In practice, normally awarded to: The top National Hockey League General Manager

Doug Armstrong (St. Louis Blues)
Showed all the signs of being the GM of an emerging powerhouse team by winning the frantic league-wide races to acquire Jason Arnott, Jamie Langenbrunner, Kent Huskins and Brian Elliott then firing his coach after 13 games.

David Poile (Nashville)
Another excellent season at the helm of the over-achieving franchise, but doubts remain that his plan to get Shea Weber and Ryan Suter to fly to Russia briefly then come back to play for entry level deals will help keep the team together in the off-season.

Dale Tallon (Florida Panthers)
Proved this was the finest season of his GM career by overspending on several mediocre free agents on purpose this time.

12 April 2012

The Pain Game 2011/12 - end of season wrap

Injury stats update – end of season awards

This is my final update* for the 2011/12 regular season looking at which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

[*Final regular update at least.  I may or may not produce some further breakdowns and four-year analyses at some point before next season.]

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2011/12 cap charge, then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below (playoff teams highlighted in yellow) shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the 2011/12 regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season) 
10 second analysis...
The Canadiens eventually eased to a comfortable gap at the top of the CHIP table, thus earning the title I'm assured by Randy Cunneyworth is known in those parts as L'Équipe Le Mostest Injuré de la HLN 2011/12.

A more successful season will no doubt be aided by the return to health of so many key players (and Scott Gomez).  Perhaps less aided by the future decision to fire the team surgeon halfway through Andrei Markov's next knee surgery.

Late season Datsyuk and Toews-shaped holes in the Red Wings and Blackhawks respective line-ups saw both teams move away from their long-held positions at the bottom, to be replaced by the pesky divisional rival Predators, sneaking into place Radulov-style.

Still no obviously strong correlation between the extent of injuries and making the playoffs to my untrained eye.

Winners of positional crowns:
Goaltenders: Islanders [shocked face]
Defensemen: Capitals [the smell of Poti Pourri and the decaying remains of what used to be Mike Green]
Forwards: Canadiens [shame Tomas Kaberle wasn't an injured forward]

And the paper hats:
Goaltenders: Kings and Predators [stress free roles with all the goal support]
Defensemen: Bruins [only group of defensemen who don't have to block any Zdeno Chara shots]
Forwards: Coyotes [every forward on the roster missed 50+ games, but it still adds up to only $1.1m]

The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:
The pain and frustration of all the games Sidney Crosby missed surely pales into insignificance compared to the vicious hurt incurred by the nasty words said into a microphone by a few people, including this year's runaway winner of the FACC (Fines Against Cursing Coaches) award, John Tortorella.

The Blue Jackets difficulties this season obviously not helped by having to find two replacements to eat up the 20 minutes a game pinned in their own end normally taken by Kristian Huselius and Radek Martinek.

Players who missed all 82 games (and are not officially retired to my knowledge):
Sauer (Phoenix) [second full season out]
Sheppard (San Jose) [second full season out]
Savard (Boston)
Betts (Philadelphia)
Laperriere (Philadelphia) [second full season out]
Ohlund (Tampa Bay)
Poti (Washington)

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.

As a brief, meaningless comparison to last year: Mushy heads and upper/lower body pain up, leg hurt down.

 
Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion) or "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.

Things look broadly similar to last year at either end of the table here: Nashville, Phoenix and Carolina staying in the top four; Colorado, the Rangers and Edmonton staying in the bottom five.  Something clearly changed in either evil genius Guy Boucher or Canadian demigod Steve Yzerman for the Lightning to suddenly clam up over their injuries this year though.


Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (perhaps an arbitrary judgement on my part in some cases) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Some corrections are picked up month-to-month too
  • The cap figure doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where rookie bonuses are included this year, where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid
  • Also, for any player who was acquired on re-entry waivers (e.g. Sean Avery), the cap hit will only reflect that for their current team, i.e. 50% of the player’s full cap hit (shared between his current and old teams)
  • I've once again stuck a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player on the web HERE
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

7 March 2012

The Pain Game 2011/12 - Part Five

Injury stats update – February 2012

This is my penultimate look for the 2011/12 regular season at which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2011/12 cap charge, then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the 2011/12 regular season (through games played through 29 February), as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season) 
10 second analysis...
The Canadiens widen the gap at the top slightly this month, the latest rash of injuries believed to be only in part due to concussions caused by the mass fainting episodes afflicting the whole team at the momentous But de Gomez event.

The Blue Jackets' high CHIP number presumably a result of either Rick Nash being hurt all year or Scott Howson somehow renegotiating fresh (illegal) $50m, multi-year deals for every injured player on his roster.  Who knows?

After checking with Ryan Miller, I am told that the Predators' chances of being at the bottom of the pile have perhaps improved immeasurably now Paul Gaustad is around to protect his star players from being run over.

The results of the mass under-bus-throwing in Toronto will apparently not show up until next month's figures.

The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:
Crosby and Markov may be coming back before the end of the season, but no chance either one will be caught in the CHIP race.  Unless Kristian Huselius receives an unexpected phone call from Scott Howson.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.

 
Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion) or "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (perhaps an arbitrary judgement on my part in some cases) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Some corrections are picked up month-to-month too
  • The cap figure doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where rookie bonuses are included this year, where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid
  • Also, for any player who was acquired on re-entry waivers (e.g. Sean Avery), the cap hit will only reflect that for their current team, i.e. 50% of the player’s full cap hit (shared between his current and old teams)
  • I've once again stuck a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player on the web HERE
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

31 January 2012

The Pain Game 2011/12 - Part Four

Injury stats update – January 2012

This is my fourth look for the 2011/12 regular season at which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2011/12 cap charge, then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the 2011/12 regular season (through games played up to the All-Star break), as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season) 
 
10 second analysis...
Still a two-horse race at the top, though Pierre Gauthier is said to be contemplating pulling his horse up and trading it for a blind donkey who eats four times as many carrots.  The words "Columbus Blue Jackets" and "significant rise in the standings" feature in close proximity for the first time in several years, as a few more of their heavily overpaid players get hurt.

Also some separation at the bottom (coincidentally the name of Rick DiPietro's next injury...) as the Wings and Hawks remain relatively healthy, the annual Red Wing All-Star flu apart.  The Bruins also pretty much injury-free, if Marc Savard's long-term absence is excluded.

Not sure why the Lightning aren't leading the table by a mile, given Guy Boucher's recent propensity to complain about the number of injuries his underachieving team has been coping with.  Maybe they are just hidden so well as to not exist (perhaps...see below).

The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:
 

As could be expected, what are tending towards season-long absences dominate these tables now.  The Sauer brothers are beginning to sadly display some Lindros-esque attributes.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.

 

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion) or "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (perhaps an arbitrary judgement on my part in some cases) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Some corrections are picked up month-to-month too
  • The cap figure doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where rookie bonuses are included this year, where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid
  • Also, for any player who was acquired on re-entry waivers (e.g. Sean Avery), the cap hit will only reflect that for their current team, i.e. 50% of the player’s full cap hit (shared between his current and old teams)
  • I've once again stuck a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player on the web HERE
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com